Multivariate Decomposition for Hazard Rate Models

Daniel A. Powers, University of Texas at Austin
Myeong-Su Yun, Tulane University

We develop a regression decomposition technique for hazard rate models, where the difference in observed rates is decomposed into components attributable to group differences in characteristics and group differences in effects. The baseline hazard is specified using a piecewise constant exponential model, which leads to convenient estimation based on a Poisson regression model fit to person-period, or split-episode data. This specification allows for a flexible representation of the baseline hazard and provides a straightforward way to introduce time-varying covariates and time-varying effects. We provide computational details underlying the decomposition method and demonstrate the technique with a decomposition of the black-white difference in first premarital birth rates into components reflecting characteristics and effect contributions of several predictors, as well as the effect contribution attributable to race differences in the baseline hazard.

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Presented in Session 134: Statistical Demography